SurveyUSA (9/14-16, likely voters):
Jim Martin (D): 36
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 53
Allen Buckley (L): 8
(MoE: ±3.8%)
And here’s Rasmussen (9/16, likely voters, 8/14 in parens):
Jim Martin (D): 43 (44)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50 (50)
Allen Buckley (L): 8
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Pick your poison. Here’s one glaring discrepancy between the polls: SurveyUSA finds that the kids love them some Chambliss, with Saxby leading Martin by 51-36 among 18-34 year-olds, while Rasmussen says that 18-29 year-olds are giving Martin a monster 67-30 lead.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.
Update: Saxby’s own poll gives him a 52-33 lead.
This whole cycle Rasmussen seems to be more favorable for Dems and SUSA for Repubs. Weird.
Parnell just conceded. Young finally wins.
26% in this poll, while in 2004 the black vote amounted to 29% of the electorate for Denise Majette, and one would have to assume there’s going to be a slight bump, so, just for purposes say SUSA undersampled the AA vote by 5 points, which would give Martin about a four point bounce and take four points away from Chambliss. Then it would be 40-52, not to far off from Rasmussen, which is probably hte appropritate picture of this race. If I were the DSCC, seeing this soft numbers for Chambliss and the NRCC’s cash-strappedness, I’d make a big, sudden, 6 million dollar ad buy to try to soften up Chambliss some more and bring Martin within striking distance on election day. Because this race has even more significance as a morale victory for Democrats across the deepsouth and wlould certainly give back Georgia Democrats some of the confidence and energy they have lost after a long string of losses and disapointments.
safi posted a diary on the S-USA poll. I followed the link to the S-USA page, which presents their information in a clean and easily read way, I give them credit for that. And I took some encouragement from the internals.
The “Favorable 31%/Unfavorable 23%” figures for Jim Martin with very high 34% Neutral, and 13% No opinion, suggest that Martin is still not well known by the voters, and has a chance to grow his support. Shameless Saxby has only 46% Favorables, not great for an incumbent, but only 22% Unfavorable, with 22% Neutral, 10% No opinion. Lots of room for the DSCC to grow those Unfavorables with negative advertising next month.
So Martin runs better among voters already worried about the economy. That’s a group I guarantee you is growing with every passing day and falling financial giant.
And not everyone who dislikes Chambliss has come over to Jim Martin yet.
The momentum is still with Jim Martin, and there’s still time for him to win the seat in Georgia.
But I’m thinking it might be our best shot out of the long shots.
If it is the DSCC needs to get involved now to counter Saxy’s big ad buys.
Both polls show the Libertarian candidate with 8% of the vote. But he won’t get anywhere near 8% on election day; it’ll be more like 1%, and most of the other 7% will end up voting for Chambliss.
I seriously dislike Chambliss, but unfortunately, the Atlanta exurbs are just too red for a Democrat to have a serious chance there.
In 2002, GA governor Roy Barnes was the receipient of the biggest upset in a decade, IMO. Not one poll or pundit predicted a win by the winner, GOPer Sonny Perdue. It was very below the radar, and wasn’t 51/49 either, although I don’t remember the exact figures.
Maybe that will happen here. I still believe that with enough money, Martin could pull an upset, and that this IS the most likely of the long-shots to actually happen.